Just Do It

A few weeks ago, I met up with an old mentor for a chat. We intended for the meeting to last an hour or two, but it went well into the nighttime. And while I won't divulge too much of what we discussed, I have two highlights of our conversation that get me thinking whenever I chance to reflect on our encounter.

The Value of Land

Considering him an old man, I had to interrogate him about why, despite living in times when land cost a few pennies, he hadn't bought himself entire hills. I also let him in on my frustration with my grandparents who, despite being relatively wealthy at the time, frequently traveled to Kampala for business but never bothered to purchase a single plot back when the entire Yusuf Lule road (present day Garden City) was a thick bush. They only remembered to do so a few years ago and, by that time, could only afford a decent plot past Namugongo to build their Kampala house.

"Everyday I think about how they forewent millions of dollars worth of appreciated value and I'm sincerely vexed! We would have a completely different life now if they hadn't been so devoid of foresight," I whined.

However, he wasn't of the same view.

He remonstrated that, back in the day, land wasn't considered something of much value, much less something that would cause a man to take another's life as we see nowadays. Back then, land was so abundant that you could simply give it to your neighbor (or even a stranger) to set up shop, and given the abundance, one would not even go so far as to sign a contract. A simple gentleman's agreement would do.

"This entire area used to actually be a swamp," he said as he gestured towards Shopright Lugogo across the street. "And all these houses in Kololo were owned by the government and only civil servants lived there. But, almost overnight, there was a population boom in the city. With the peace and stability that had been brought about by the NRM government, people began to give birth like rabbits and would send their kids to Kampala to acquire an education, after which these young men and women would find a job in the city and settle. Before I knew it, land cost a fortune."

The rapid development of Kampala over the decades has transformed swampland into valuable real estate

He also had a very interesting take on corruption being a major contributor to the real estate boom (When a government official steals money, the quickest way to "clean" it is to buy real estate such as land and buildings) but I won't get too much into that.

As he spoke, I recalled my earlier article on data backed decisions. Let's imagine for a second if, at that time, Uganda had extensive statistics on the birth rate. Wouldn't it be easy to infer that this extremely high birth rate is going to translate into an explosion in the urban population, almost all of whom will need land on which to settle? And, given the laws of supply and demand, wouldn't this translate into skyrocketing land prices?

But alas. Back in the 80's, spreadsheets were still drawn by hand. It was nearly impossible to mine data for insights the way it is now... But I still believe that he who had a keen eye would have easily predicted this.

The Lifespan of Business Empires

Secondly, we shared extensively about how Uganda hardly has any indigenous entrepreneurs whose empires have stood the test of time, asides the Indians (Mahdvani, Mehta, etc). "All of the top businessmen from my time," he said, "their empires are nowhere to be seen today." As soon as the leader dies, the empire quickly follows. Upon further thought, the late Mulwana is the only one he could think of whose empire is still functional close to a decade after his death, and he was quick to emphasize that, even for him, the verdict is still out.

"As a country, we are so young and are destined for decades or even centuries of growth. And as the economy and population grows, new cities will grow, old ones might even wane."

This revelation was both disappointing yet encouraging: Disappointing because, I had expected Ugandans to have better business astuteness (after all, we hold the undisputed title for most entrepreneurial country), but it was also encouraging because it means that there is still a lot of work to do. There are still opportunities for young people like me to make a mark and be known, contrary to what I had earlier thought.

Back when I was still on "footsubishi," I would be walking across Kampala road and stop to marvel at the fact that one man owned half of the buildings along the road, and would wonder if, by the time I enter the game, there would be anything left.

But, this conversation put me at bay. I realised that, as a country, we are so young and are destined for decades or even centuries of growth. And as the economy and population grows, new cities will grow, old ones might even wane (see Detroit in the 60's and now, vs Silicone Valley). So, if you're a recent civil engineering graduate looking to start a construction company but are overwhelmed at the very thought of competing with the likes of Roko, take a drive to Luweero or even nearby Gayaza and marvel at the vast expanse of uninhabited land, then take a quick stroll through Najjera and see the development. Najjera looked like uninhabited Luweero only 20 years ago, and should be evidence enough that there is enough business to go around. A handful of companies simply haven't the capacity to meet the demand that's yet to come.

Conclusion

In summary, if there's anything you're to take away from me it's this: ditch the scarcity mentality. Don't be discouraged by the thought that all the good real estate has been taken; don't be discouraged by all the large companies that are well established. The pie is growing and there will be more for everyone in the years to come.

Just do it.